7
Stickupwithoutagun
3yo Colt · 8-8 · OR 81
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Ontario County Stakes · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | -1th | +4 |
| 2026-08-14 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-07-13 | Finger Lakes | BHA75 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength80%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 29/08/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 04/10/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 16/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 03/06/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 14/08/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |