3
Three Thirteen
3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 90
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Ontario County Stakes · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Saratoga | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-09-21 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/07/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 22/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 75% | +0.28 |
| 07/06/2026 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 10% | -0.48 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 55% | +0.28 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 28/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |