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5

Valentine Crusader

3yo Gelding · 8-6 · OR 96

Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Ontario County Stakes · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Saratoga 06/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 1196/07C6C6 @ Saratoga 15/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 85 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark15/08/2025 · OR 85 par15/08C6OR 85projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-08-15Saratoga?2nd4th−2
2025-07-06Saratoga?2nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/0715/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength52%

Delivery trend -9.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/07/20252nd2/189%86%-0.04
15/08/20252nd11/893%80%-0.13