3
Katie King
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 79
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-08 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 23/01/2026 | 1st | 1/11 | 100% | 100% | +0.00 |
| 15/02/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 22/03/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 24/05/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 26/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |