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Missing Fortune

7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 77

Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

#4

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

11%

Place Prob

16%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 2.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Aqueduct 08/12/2023 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 83 · 6f110y Fas 124 · below its mark08/12/2023 · OR 83 par8/12C6OR 83C6 @ Aqueduct 04/01/2024 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR 86 · 6f Fas 123 · below its mark04/01/2024 · OR 86 parC6 @ Aqueduct 19/01/2024 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 88 · 7f Fas 123 · below its mark19/01/2024 · OR 88 par19/01C6OR 88C6 @ Finger Lakes 02/07/2024 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 92 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark02/07/2024 · OR 92 parC6 @ Saratoga 02/08/2024 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 94 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark02/08/2024 · OR 94 par2/08C6OR 94C5 @ Finger Lakes 01/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 95 · 6f 118 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/09/2025 · OR 95 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 07/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 88 · 6f 122 · below its mark07/07/2026 · OR 88 par7/07C6OR 88C6 @ Saratoga 02/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 81 · 6f110y Fas 126 · below its mark02/08/2026 · OR 81 parC6 @ Finger Lakes 19/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 78 · 6f 124 · below its mark19/08/2026 · OR 78 par19/08C6OR 78projClass-projected finish: 8th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19Finger Lakes?6th6th0
2026-08-02Saratoga?6th6th0
2026-07-07Finger Lakes?3rd3rd0
2025-09-01Finger Lakes?6th5th+1
2024-08-02Saratoga?4th4th0
2024-07-02Finger Lakes?2nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/122/077/0719/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength19%

Delivery trend +1.9% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/12/20232nd7/163%75%+0.12
04/01/20243rd4/179%33%-0.46
19/01/20244th13/266%40%-0.26
02/07/20242nd7/491%83%-0.07
02/08/20244th13/266%40%-0.26
01/09/20256th16/116%0%-0.16
07/07/20263rd12/137%60%+0.23
02/08/20266th40/10%0%0.00
19/08/20266th16/116%0%-0.16