8
Pens Street
8yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 80
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Saratoga | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-08-12 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-11 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-02-14 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength27%
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 20/11/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 14/02/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 28/03/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 11/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 12/08/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 23/08/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |