Zi End
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 87
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#6
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2025 | 1st | 2/11 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |
| 01/09/2025 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 22/09/2025 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 24/06/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 19/08/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 40% | -0.55 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |