5
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7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 66
Finger Lakes · Race 9 - Claiming · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-06-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength52%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/11/2024 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 13/12/2024 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 14/05/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 26/06/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 26/08/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 16/09/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 03/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |