3
Invaluable Will
10yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 61
Finger Lakes · Race 9 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength27%
Delivery trend +9.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 75% | -0.14 |
| 29/06/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 29% | -0.45 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 20% | -0.69 |
| 27/07/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 11/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 07/09/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |