6
Winning Drive
10yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 71
Finger Lakes · Race 9 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
7%
Place Prob
15%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-03-12 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength9%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/12/2024 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 24/01/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 11/02/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/03/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 26/05/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 26/06/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 14/07/2025 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 40% | -0.51 |
| 05/08/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 07/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |