Clarayouthebest
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 72
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
77%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | -3th | +3 |
| 2025-09-25 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-21 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/06/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 05/07/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 18/07/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 12/08/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 21/08/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 25/09/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 15/11/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 21/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |