1
Ladies Rum
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 68
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-20 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength90%
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2024 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 63% | +0.26 |
| 22/11/2024 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 06/12/2024 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 19/06/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 25/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 11/07/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 20/08/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/09/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |