4
Little Fire
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 64
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 23/09/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 21/10/2025 | 4th | 10/11 | 95% | 50% | -0.45 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 24/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 14/09/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |