3
Little Iris
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 60
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength49%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Will Rogers Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/01/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 02/02/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 43% | -0.50 |
| 23/03/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |
| 07/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 21/04/2026 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 11/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 21/06/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 03/08/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |