2
Sarah's Dancer
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 61
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-13 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-03 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-11 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 4-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength3%
Delivery trend -3.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/07/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 24/07/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 21/08/2025 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 44% | -0.27 |
| 11/09/2025 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 03/10/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 13/10/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 40% | -0.34 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 10/08/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |