Fairway To Heaven
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 78
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 08/11/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 13/12/2025 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 12/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 12/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |