Kiddie Holiday
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 80
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
29%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/11/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 44% | +0.18 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 27/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 03/08/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 07/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |