5
Paperback Hero
8yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 82
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength61%
Delivery trend +0.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/09/2025 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 16/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 07/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 31/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 29/06/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 17% | -0.60 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |