6
Bank On Big Winner
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 47
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Allowance · 7f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-10-19 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-08-24 | Woodbine | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-07-27 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-06-29 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength48%
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 27/07/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 24/08/2025 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 11% | -0.55 |
| 14/09/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 19/10/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/09/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |