1
Dancin Mary Marie
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 62
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Allowance · 7f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 10th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength74%
Delivery trend +2.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 12/12/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 02/05/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 22/05/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 44% | -0.27 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 10/08/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |