2
Diomedes
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 70
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Allowance · 7f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-06-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-05-25 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-04-19 | Keeneland | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2024-11-30 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength13%
Delivery trend -7.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2024 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 63% | +0.02 |
| 29/09/2024 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 29% | -0.35 |
| 03/11/2024 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 71% | +0.03 |
| 30/11/2024 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 19/04/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 25/05/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 15/06/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 28/07/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |