5
Sassagoula River
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 62
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Allowance · 7f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
41%
Place Prob
41%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 3.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -2.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-07-10 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-06-20 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 2-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength58%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 82% | +0.00 |
| 16/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 38% | -0.28 |
| 20/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 10/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 4/6 | 96% | 50% | -0.46 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |