3
Sunset Skippy
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 66
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Allowance · 7f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
56%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength30%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2025-11-23 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
| 2025-11-08 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength95%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 08/11/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 23/11/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |
| 30/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |