2
Cantucci
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 80
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength67%
Delivery trend -0.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/04/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 17/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |