Mia And Me

7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 85

Fort Erie · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

Place Prob

20%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength32%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.2

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-07	Fort Erie	?	3rd	1st	+2	9.4
2026-08-24	Fort Erie	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-08-03	Fort Erie	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-07-20	Fort Erie	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-07-06	Fort Erie	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-06-21	Fort Erie	?	5th	3rd	+2	7.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.7% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
09/09/2025	4th	13/2	66%	0%	-0.66
29/09/2025	3rd	11/2	71%	71%	+0.00
21/10/2025	7th	12/1	37%	14%	-0.23
21/06/2026	5th	9/1	53%	0%	-0.53
06/07/2026	5th	11/2	71%	33%	-0.38
20/07/2026	3rd	20/1	0%	60%	+0.60
03/08/2026	2nd	5/1	74%	75%	+0.01
24/08/2026	2nd	11/2	71%	83%	+0.12
07/09/2026	3rd	5/1	74%	60%	-0.14