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5yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 73
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-14 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-10-31 | Woodbine | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 03/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 24/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 31/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/11/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |