3
Truly Mischief
7yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 86
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
88%
Place Prob
65%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength73%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 78% | -0.09 |
| 29/11/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 09/05/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 31/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 33% | -0.51 |
| 06/07/2026 | 6th | 7/4 | 91% | 17% | -0.74 |
| 28/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |