7
Canadian Forces
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 36
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲3
Strength15%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 9.8 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-12-12 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 13th | −3 |
| 2025-11-15 | Woodbine | ? | 10th | 13th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength63%
Delivery trend -6.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 12/12/2025 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |