4
Daring Dame
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 43
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-06-05 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-05-15 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend +1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 26/05/2025 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 20% | -0.69 |
| 15/05/2026 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 14% | -0.52 |
| 05/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 25/06/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 07/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 28/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |
| 10/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |