2
Melody Maker
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 55
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-27 | Turfway Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 5-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 09/10/2025 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 12/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 91% | +0.17 |
| 27/02/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 27% | -0.10 |
| 26/04/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 17% | -0.41 |
| 18/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 10/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 30/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |