6
No Mistake
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 57
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
15%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-06-20 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-05-22 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-08 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength77%
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 10% | -0.27 |
| 08/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 80% | +0.14 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 31/05/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 20/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |