5

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3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 79

Fort Erie · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f

#4

Rank

Odds

9/5

Win Prob

5%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 8.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Churchill Downs 04/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR - · 5f110y Fm 1184/06C6C6 @ Churchill Downs 24/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 86 · 1m Fm 118 · below its mark24/06/2026 · OR 86 par24/06C6OR 86C6 @ Ellis Park 17/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 87 · 6f Slo 119 · below its mark17/08/2026 · OR 87 par17/08C6OR 87projClass-projected finish: 4th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-17Ellis Park?9th9th0
2026-06-24Churchill Downs?9th9th0
2026-06-04Churchill Downs?7th7th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0624/0617/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend
Strength100%

Delivery trend +15.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/06/20267th9/153%25%-0.28
24/06/20269th16/116%20%+0.04
17/08/20269th16/116%20%+0.04