1
You Signed It
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 56
Fort Erie · Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
59%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Woodbine | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-20 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-07-30 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-04-16 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-03-08 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength98%
Delivery trend +12.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/03/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 16/04/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 30/07/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 20/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 06/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |