April Diamond
5yo Mare · 9-9 · OR 55
Hamilton · Racing TV Apprentice Handicap · 1m 68y
#4
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 5.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Carlisle | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Musselburgh | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 6 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Carlisle | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-19 | Newcastle | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-05 | Ayr | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2026 | 7th | 150/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 05/05/2026 | 6th | 80/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 19/05/2026 | 5th | 80/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 15/06/2026 | 2nd | 28/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 06/07/2026 | 13th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 19/08/2026 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |