5
Little Ted
9yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 49
Hamilton · Racing TV Apprentice Handicap · 1m 68y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-18 | Ayr | 5 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-31 | Ripon | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ripon | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Leicester | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-25 | Newcastle | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 90% | +0.08 |
| 16/06/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 14% | -0.65 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 92% | +0.18 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 88% | -0.05 |
| 25/07/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 55% | -0.24 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 31/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 89% | +0.03 |
| 18/09/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 86% | +0.70 |