6
Millbuie
5yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 48
Hamilton · Racing TV Apprentice Handicap · 1m 68y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Ayr | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newcastle | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-13 | Ayr | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ayr | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hamilton | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength26%
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/2026 | 8th | 8/1 | 58% | 36% | -0.22 |
| 05/05/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 83% | +0.68 |
| 10/06/2026 | 10th | 16/1 | 16% | 10% | -0.06 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 78% | +0.25 |
| 13/07/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 31/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 02/09/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |