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3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 72

Hamilton · Watch Racing TV Free For 31 Days Handicap · 1m 4f 15y

#8

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has built a remarkable record with all 3 wins this season coming in the mud, latest at Beverley last month by neck from Rapide Vega. Can have his last run at Doncaster excused after an early stumble left him on the back foot. One to take seriously with conditions likely to be in his favour.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength45%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 06/11/2025 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 1m5y Std 1336/1156 @ Wolverhampton 20/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 60 · 1m1f104y Std 130 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 60 par6 @ Windsor 25/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 59 · 1m31y GF 135 · beat its mark25/05/2026 · OR 59 par25/056OR 595 @ Lingfield 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 59 · 1m1f Sft 124 · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Ayr 19/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 62 · 1m2f Sft 129 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 62 par19/066OR 625 @ Southwell 27/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 69 · 1m3f23y Std 134 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Wolverhampton 31/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 69 · 1m4f51y Std 130 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 69 par31/075OR 695 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 68 · 1m1f207y Sft 128 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 68 par4 @ Doncaster 11/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR 72 · 1m2f43y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/09/2026 · OR 72 par11/094OR 72projClass-projected finish: 7th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-11Doncaster411th10th+1
2026-08-29Beverley51st1st0
2026-07-31Wolverhampton53rd3rd0
2026-07-27Southwell55th5th0
2026-06-19Ayr61st2nd−1
2026-06-06Lingfield51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today6/116/0631/0711/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength59%

Delivery trend -2.1% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
06/11/20258th33/10%22%+0.22
20/12/20257th11/486%14%-0.71
25/05/20263rd20/10%85%+0.85
06/06/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
19/06/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
27/07/20265th9/153%69%+0.17
31/07/20263rd12/137%67%+0.30
29/08/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
11/09/202611th4/179%38%-0.41