Florida Dreams
8yo Gelding · 9-8 · OR 68
Hamilton · Watch Racing TV Free For 31 Days Handicap · 1m 4f 15y
#11
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hamilton | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Hamilton | 3 | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-21 | Haydock | 3 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-09 | Hexham | 3 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Kelso | 2 | 6th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 26/12/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 01/02/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 58% | -0.23 |
| 28/02/2026 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 29% | -0.57 |
| 09/05/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 36% | -0.35 |
| 21/05/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 25/06/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 06/09/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 36% | -0.11 |