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Helmsley

4yo Filly · 10-0 · OR 74

Hamilton · Watch Racing TV Free For 31 Days Handicap · 1m 4f 15y

#7

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Backed up the promise of recent outings in first-time tongue strap when beaten only by a bang-in-form opponent at Chester in June. Failed to repeat that at Beverley next time. Well held in novice on hurdling debut at Sedgefield last week. Goes well in soft conditions and market probably best guide.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength70%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.1)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack2 @ Lingfield 03/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 86 · 1m2f Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/12/2025 · OR 86 par3/122OR 864 @ Southwell 03/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 85 · 1m13y Std 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/01/2026 · OR 85 par3 @ Newcastle 22/01/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 79 · 1m5y Std 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/01/2026 · OR 79 par22/013OR 794 @ Newcastle 14/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 75 · 1m5y Sta 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/02/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Thirsk 18/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 12 · OR 79 · 1m4f8y Goo 134 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 79 par18/044OR 794 @ York 13/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 17 · OR 77 · 1m3f188y Gd 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/05/2026 · OR 77 par4 @ Chester 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 74 · 1m4f63y Goo 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 74 par13/064OR 744 @ Beverley 23/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 75 · 1m1f207y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/06/2026 · OR 75 par4 @ Sedgefield 14/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR - · 2m178y Goo 158 · HIGHER CLASS14/094projClass-projected finish: 11th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-14Sedgefield45th4th+1
2026-06-23Beverley45th4th+1
2026-06-13Chester42nd1st+1
2026-05-13York46th5th+1
2026-04-18Thirsk47th6th+1
2026-02-14Newcastle46th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1214/0213/0614/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.7% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/12/20258th80/10%13%+0.13
03/01/20268th80/10%0%0.00
22/01/20266th66/10%17%+0.17
14/02/20266th50/10%29%+0.29
18/04/20267th12/137%45%+0.09
13/05/20266th33/10%69%+0.69
13/06/20262nd10/382%86%+0.03
23/06/20265th11/486%0%-0.86
14/09/20265th15/261%33%-0.27