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Humble Spark

6yo Gelding · 10-1 · OR 75

Hamilton · Watch Racing TV Free For 31 Days Handicap · 1m 4f 15y

#4

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Course winner who's on a lengthy losing run but went very close in Queen Mothers Cup at York in June. Took a step back in the right direction when fifth at Ayr just 4 days ago. Takes a marked drop in grade and can't be discounted if building on that.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼2
Strength81%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +2.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 14 · OR 78 · 1m4f104y Gd 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 78 par12/044OR 783 @ Hamilton 03/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 77 · 1m5f16y Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 77 par3 @ Hamilton 15/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 77 · 1m3f15y Gd 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/05/2026 · OR 77 par15/053OR 772 @ Carlisle 30/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m3f39y Goo 115 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 78 par3 @ York 13/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 77 · 1m3f188y Goo 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark13/06/2026 · OR 77 par13/063OR 772 @ Ayr 20/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 78 · 1m5f26y Sft 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/06/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ York 10/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 78 · 1m3f188y Goo 139 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 78 par10/074OR 783 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 77 · 1m3f188y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 77 par3 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 75 · 1m5f26y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 75 par17/093OR 75projClass-projected finish: 4th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr35th3rd+2
2026-07-25York36th4th+2
2026-07-10York46th5th+1
2026-06-20Ayr29th5th+3
2026-06-13York32nd0th+2
2026-05-30Carlisle26th2nd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0430/0510/0717/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength61%

Delivery trend +0.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/04/20264th9/276%77%+0.01
03/05/20262nd5/287%75%-0.12
15/05/20262nd9/488%83%-0.05
30/05/20266th17/255%55%-0.01
13/06/20262nd7/282%88%+0.06
20/06/20269th8/158%27%-0.31
10/07/20266th7/282%44%-0.37
25/07/20266th13/266%44%-0.21
17/09/20265th16/116%60%+0.44