Northern Brave
3yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 73
Hamilton · Watch Racing TV Free For 31 Days Handicap · 1m 4f 15y
#9
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Beverley | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Thirsk | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Redcar | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-23 | York | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-14 | York | 4 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Ayr | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -10.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 2/7 | 99% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 14/05/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 23/05/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 33% | +0.28 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 29/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |