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5

Sure And Stedfast

4yo Gelding · 9-12 · OR 72

Hamilton · Watch Racing TV Free For 31 Days Handicap · 1m 4f 15y

#3

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

6%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Had been threatening to come good this season and posted a career-best effort when landing 6-runner handicap at Musselburgh (13f, good to firm) last month. More required again from a career-high mark.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength62%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Carlisle 01/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 64 · 1m1f Gd 130 · beat its mark01/09/2025 · OR 64 par1/095OR 642 @ Nottingham 02/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 68 · 1m2f50y Goo 114 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/10/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Musselburgh 05/11/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 68 · 1m4f104y Sft 133 · beat its mark05/11/2025 · OR 68 par5/115OR 685 @ Newcastle 01/05/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR 68 · 1m2f42y Std 128 · below its mark01/05/2026 · OR 68 par4 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 67 · 1m3f15y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/05/2026 · OR 67 par17/054OR 675 @ Hamilton 04/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 67 · 1m5f16y Goo 130 · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 67 par5 @ Newcastle 27/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 68 · 1m4f98y Sta 135 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 68 par27/065OR 684 @ Hamilton 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 68 · 1m5f16y Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 68 par5 @ Musselburgh 07/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 68 · 1m5f Gd 139 · beat its mark07/08/2026 · OR 68 par7/085OR 68projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-07Musselburgh51st1st0
2026-07-11Hamilton43rd2nd+1
2026-06-27Newcastle55th5th0
2026-06-04Hamilton52nd2nd0
2026-05-17Hamilton43rd2nd+1
2026-05-01Newcastle510th10th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today1/091/0527/067/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▼
Strength58%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
01/09/20251st15/261%100%+0.39
02/10/20258th20/10%30%+0.30
05/11/20252nd7/282%86%+0.04
01/05/202610th33/10%18%+0.18
17/05/20263rd14/126%78%+0.51
04/06/20262nd4/179%83%+0.04
27/06/20265th13/266%64%-0.02
11/07/20263rd3/184%50%-0.34
07/08/20261st8/158%100%+0.42