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3yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 74

Hamilton · Watch Racing TV Free For 31 Days Handicap · 1m 4f 15y

#6

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Much improved when opening account in 9f Carlisle handicap (soft) in June. Quickly back to form when 1¼ lengths second of 8 to Valley Of Flowers in handicap at Beverley (1½m, heavy, 6/1) 23 days ago. Makes the shortlist and would appreciate any further rain.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Musselburgh 22/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR - · 7f15y Goo 13322/0755 @ Ayr 18/09/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR - · 1m Goo 1334 @ Wetherby 26/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR - · 1m Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS26/0445 @ Hamilton 15/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 72 · 1m68y Gd 133 · below its mark15/05/2026 · OR 72 par4 @ Nottingham 03/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 69 · 1m2f50y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/06/2026 · OR 69 par3/064OR 695 @ Carlisle 09/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 69 · 1m1f Goo 134 · beat its mark09/06/2026 · OR 69 par5 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 74 · 1m2f Goo 133 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 74 par8/085OR 745 @ Beverley 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 74 · 1m4f23y Sft 132 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 74 par29/085OR 74projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Beverley52nd2nd0
2026-08-08Ayr56th6th0
2026-06-09Carlisle51st1st0
2026-06-03Nottingham43rd2nd+1
2026-05-15Hamilton57th7th0
2026-04-26Wetherby44th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today22/0715/058/0829/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1282% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.1% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
22/07/20255th9/153%20%-0.33
18/09/20254th8/158%50%-0.08
26/04/20264th11/142%57%+0.15
15/05/20267th11/142%25%-0.17
03/06/20263rd12/137%60%+0.23
09/06/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
08/08/20266th14/126%58%+0.32
29/08/20262nd6/168%86%+0.17