IvyArcIvyArc
1

Arklow Lad

4yo Colt · 9-12 · OR 91

Hamilton · Sir Ian Good Memorial Handicap · 5f 7y

#3

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Gained a third win for his current yard this season in the Dash at Epsom in June. Has run poorly the last twice, though he could fare better now switched to blinkers with conditions in his favour (all 3 turf wins on soft ground).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength50%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackBHA74 @ Naas 11/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 74 · 5f Yie 124 · below its mark11/10/2025 · OR 74 par11/1074OR 74BHA75 @ Navan 22/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 11 · OR 75 · 5f Sft 138 · below its mark22/10/2025 · OR 75 par5 @ Chelmsford City 26/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 75 · 5f Std 135 · beat its mark26/02/2026 · OR 75 par26/025OR 754 @ Wolverhampton 20/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 82 · 6f20y Std 133 · beat its mark20/03/2026 · OR 82 par2 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 82 · 5f3y GS 117 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 82 par7/042OR 822 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 21 · OR 86 · 5f Gd 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 86 par2 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 20 · OR 86 · 5f Goo 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 86 par6/062OR 862 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 92 · 5f7y Gd 135 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark01/08/2026 · OR 92 par2 @ Haydock 05/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 92 · 5f Sft 133 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/09/2026 · OR 92 par5/092OR 92projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Haydock29th8th+1
2026-08-01Hamilton211th10th+1
2026-06-06Epsom Downs21st0th+1
2026-05-14York25th4th+1
2026-04-07Pontefract21st0th+1
2026-03-20Wolverhampton43rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today11/1020/036/065/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength43%

Delivery trend -7.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
11/10/20252nd15/261%90%+0.29
22/10/20256th4/179%50%-0.29
26/02/20261st11/1094%100%+0.06
20/03/20263rd15/890%80%-0.10
07/04/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
14/05/20265th12/137%80%+0.43
06/06/20261st7/163%100%+0.37
01/08/202611th4/179%0%-0.79
05/09/20269th5/174%0%-0.74