IvyArcIvyArc
6

Montezuma

4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 76

Hamilton · Sir Ian Good Memorial Handicap · 5f 7y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Off the mark in big-field handicap at Musselburgh (5f) in April and went close over the same C&D in July. Not in the same form in 2 races last month, though seemed unsuited by stepping back up to 6f when sixth of 10 here on latest outing.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.0
Today: 3
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Musselburgh 04/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 71 · 5f1y Sft 121 · beat its mark04/04/2026 · OR 71 par4/044OR 714 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 17 · OR 71 · 5f1y Goo 127 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 71 par4 @ Musselburgh 26/04/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 78 · 5f1y Goo 128 · beat its mark26/04/2026 · OR 78 par26/044OR 784 @ Hamilton 17/05/2026 · Pos 13th of 13 · OR 79 · 6f6y Gd 134 · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Thirsk 31/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 17 · OR 79 · 5f Goo 129 · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 79 par31/054OR 794 @ Hamilton 17/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 79 · 5f7y Goo 136 · beat its mark17/06/2026 · OR 79 par4 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 78 · 5f1y Gd 132 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 78 par31/074OR 784 @ Musselburgh 07/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 78 · 5f1y Gd 136 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 78 par4 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR 78 · 6f6y GS 138 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 78 par21/084OR 78projClass-projected finish: 6th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-21Hamilton46th7th−1
2026-08-07Musselburgh45th6th−1
2026-07-31Musselburgh42nd3rd−1
2026-06-17Hamilton43rd4th−1
2026-05-31Thirsk45th6th−1
2026-05-17Hamilton413th14th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0417/0531/0721/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength16%

Delivery trend -6.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/04/20262nd13/266%91%+0.25
12/04/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
26/04/20262nd5/287%91%+0.04
17/05/202613th7/282%0%-0.82
31/05/20265th9/276%75%-0.01
17/06/20263rd11/486%71%-0.14
31/07/20262nd9/488%75%-0.13
07/08/20265th2/189%20%-0.69
21/08/20266th6/168%44%-0.24