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Stormy Impact

4yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 86

Hamilton · Sir Ian Good Memorial Handicap · 5f 7y

#5

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Winner of the 3YO Dash at Epsom in 2025 and was a keeping-on fourth in the Dash itself this year. Below form last 2 starts, though boiled over in the preliminaries at York on latest outing. Interesting from her reduced mark with conditions to suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 9.5 /10 (raw 6.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack1 @ Pontefract 17/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 96 · 6f Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/08/2025 · OR 96 par17/081OR 961 @ Ayr 19/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 95 · 5f110y Sft 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/09/2025 · OR 95 par2 @ Pontefract 20/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 94 · 6f Sft 137 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark20/10/2025 · OR 94 par20/102OR 942 @ Doncaster 08/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 22 · OR 95 · 6f2y Hvy 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 95 par2 @ York 14/05/2026 · Pos 16th of 21 · OR 94 · 5f Gd 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 94 par14/052OR 942 @ Epsom Downs 06/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 20 · OR 92 · 5f Goo 131 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/06/2026 · OR 92 par3 @ Chester 27/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 92 · 6f17y Goo 139 · beat its mark27/06/2026 · OR 92 par27/063OR 923 @ Goodwood 28/07/2026 · Pos 15th of 20 · OR 91 · 6f Goo 134 · below its mark28/07/2026 · OR 91 par2 @ York 19/08/2026 · Pos 16th of 21 · OR 89 · 5f89y Goo 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 89 par19/082OR 89projClass-projected finish: 5th of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-19York216th15th+1
2026-07-28Goodwood315th15th0
2026-06-27Chester35th5th0
2026-06-06Epsom Downs24th3rd+1
2026-05-14York216th15th+1
2025-11-08Doncaster26th5th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/088/1127/0619/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +3.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/08/20255th10/382%56%-0.27
19/09/20258th15/261%36%-0.24
20/10/20252nd5/174%86%+0.12
08/11/20256th33/10%76%+0.76
14/05/202616th40/10%25%+0.25
06/06/20264th17/255%84%+0.29
27/06/20265th10/147%50%+0.03
28/07/202615th12/137%26%-0.11
19/08/202616th22/10%25%+0.25