Ashen
4yo Gelding · 9-4 · OR 67
Hamilton · Heineken Low & No Bar Handicap · 5f 7y
#7
Rank
Odds
7/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.5)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 4 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-07 | Musselburgh | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | York | 4 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-07-11 | Hamilton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ayr | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Ayr | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 65% | +0.49 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 06/07/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 70% | -0.19 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 24/07/2026 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 35% | -0.07 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 90% | +0.32 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 60% | -0.22 |