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4

Harb

7yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 70

Hamilton · Heineken Low & No Bar Handicap · 5f 7y

#4

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won at Beverley in late-August and then followed up at Newcastle just 4 days later. Not in same form trying to concede a double penalty when fifteenth of 21 in handicap at York (5.4f, good, 18/1) 15 days ago but merits respect.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength36%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 5
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 26/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 12 · OR 66 · 5f Sta 126 · beat its mark26/06/2026 · OR 66 par26/065OR 666 @ Hamilton 11/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 64 · 5f7y Goo 142 · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 64 par4 @ York 25/07/2026 · Pos 11th of 17 · OR 63 · 5f Goo 149 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 63 par25/074OR 635 @ Hamilton 01/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 62 · 5f7y Gd 122 · beat its mark01/08/2026 · OR 62 par6 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 61 · 5f Goo 136 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 61 par8/086OR 616 @ Hamilton 21/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 60 · 5f7y GS 135 · beat its mark21/08/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 61 · 5f Hvy 126 · beat its mark30/08/2026 · OR 61 par30/085OR 616 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 61 · 5f Std 135 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 61 par4 @ York 06/09/2026 · Pos 15th of 21 · OR 61 · 5f89y GS 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark06/09/2026 · OR 61 par6/094OR 61projClass-projected finish: 5th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-06York415th14th+1
2026-09-03Newcastle61st2nd−1
2026-08-30Beverley51st1st0
2026-08-21Hamilton62nd3rd−1
2026-08-08Ayr65th6th−1
2026-08-01Hamilton54th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/061/0830/086/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength77%

Delivery trend -2.0% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/06/20268th22/10%36%+0.36
11/07/20263rd9/153%71%+0.19
25/07/202611th33/10%38%+0.38
01/08/20264th10/147%70%+0.23
08/08/20265th4/179%64%-0.15
21/08/20262nd7/282%89%+0.07
30/08/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
03/09/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
06/09/202615th18/15%30%+0.25