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Military Girl

4yo Filly · 9-12 · OR 75

Hamilton · Heineken Low & No Bar Handicap · 5f 7y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

2%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Completed a double in determined fashion over at Thirsk in early-June and added to her good record at Catterick when notching a third win of the season in a 9-runner race there (5f, good, 10/1) 13 days ago. Respected after 3 lb rise.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength30%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Redcar 17/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 68 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 68 par17/105OR 685 @ Leicester 28/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 68 · 5f Sft 128 · beat its mark28/10/2025 · OR 68 par5 @ Pontefract 21/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 66 · 5f3y Goo 131 · beat its mark21/04/2026 · OR 66 par21/045OR 665 @ Ayr 20/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 65 · 5f GF 131 · beat its mark20/05/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR 70 · 5f Gd 142 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 70 par5/065OR 705 @ Thirsk 16/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 72 · 5f Goo 133 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Thirsk 07/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 72 · 5f Goo 134 · below its mark07/08/2026 · OR 72 par7/085OR 725 @ Beverley 30/08/2026 · Pos 11th of 12 · OR 72 · 5f Hvy 137 · below its mark30/08/2026 · OR 72 par5 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 72 · 5f Goo 136 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 72 par8/095OR 72projClass-projected finish: 6th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick51st1st0
2026-08-30Beverley511th11th0
2026-08-07Thirsk55th5th0
2026-06-16Thirsk52nd2nd0
2026-06-05Thirsk51st1st0
2026-05-20Ayr51st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1020/057/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength58%

Delivery trend -3.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/10/20254th11/142%70%+0.28
28/10/20254th16/116%63%+0.47
21/04/20263rd9/276%60%-0.16
20/05/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
05/06/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
16/06/20262nd9/488%89%+0.01
07/08/20265th9/488%20%-0.68
30/08/202611th14/126%9%-0.17
08/09/20261st10/147%100%+0.53