Tanjen
4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 65
Hamilton · Heineken Low & No Bar Handicap · 5f 7y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
83%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Doncaster | 4 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-09-06 | York | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Hamilton | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Hamilton | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Chester | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Newcastle | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +9.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2026 | 5th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 12/05/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 11% | -0.57 |
| 05/06/2026 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 26/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 45% | +0.19 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 11/08/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/8 | 93% | 78% | -0.15 |
| 06/09/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 85% | +0.85 |
| 13/09/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |